Should I try Psychedelics?

Preface here

Notes here

Notes

Each time you get behind the wheel of a car (or sit in the passenger’s seat), you’re taking your life into your own hands. Every 250 miles of automobile travel is accompanied by a 1 in 1 million chance of death. The good news is, something else will probably kill you first. Especially if you believe that remote work and better airbags will ultimately improve your odds!

How many more “good” years do you want to live?

50 years

Notes

How many quality-adjusted life years do you expect for the rest-of-your-life? If you’re an able-bodied twenty-something lacking addictions to sex, drugs, or rock-and-roll, you might need a night out, but this value is probably 60+. If you’re an octogenarian with a penchant for base-jumping and a terminal diagnosis, the number is smaller. Capisce?

How likely are you to die from what’s around you while you’re “tripping?”

50%

Notes

If you reside in a quiet, flat, minimally-trafficked suburb, wandering around whilst “tripping” presents minimal risk. At worst, you might trip (dad joke intended). If your surroundings contain highways, construction sites with sharp implements, or large bodies of frigid water, dissociating might create a few additional downside risks.

How likely do you think it is that your usage will generate any long-term effect?

50%

Notes

Chances are, it’s one trip, you’ll wind up on your couch watching TV, then you’ll head back to work in a day or two. No harm, no foul, no impact. Of course, maybe, just maybe, it’ll change everything in some way you cannot appreciate.

How much benefit/cost to your remaining years of life do you think psychedelics will add (assuming it has any long-term effect)?

Notes

If you’re currently chronically-depressed and suicidal, chances are, your post-psychedelic life is not going to be worse. Maybe it’ll be the same (enter 1). Maybe it’ll be 2x, 3x, or 10x better! Maybe your life is already pretty great, but you’re living in California and working in tech, and while listening to the music of the spheres, you come up with some idea for an app that allows people to download the music of the spheres into their pliant minds and generate a 9-figure exit. (Note, if you work at the Walmart in an exurb of Minneapolis, the odds of this outcome are lower).

Of course, if you’re already enjoying an idyllic romp through the human experience, there’s a risk that this detracts from the current experience. Maybe life will only be half as fun once you realize those corporate riches are bullshit, man (0.5x). Maybe you’ll become a new person, your spouse will leave you, and you’ll feel no joy ever again (0.001x).

How many other folks are dependent on you?

Notes

If you’ve got a spouse and four kids depending on you for their survival, and you walk into traffic…you are going to diminish their quality of life a fair bit. If you’re a single, independent person, at least you’re only rolling the dice with your own psyche! (For simplicity’s sake, we’ll assume that you’ll risk an additional 10 QALYs for for each individual dependent on you, multiplied by your risk of death stated previously).

Notes

Remaining quality-adjusted life years
y: 50 years

Likelyhood of death if you contracted COVID
f: 50%

The chance you think you’d get COVID if you weren’t cautious
p: %

Dissatisfaction in a cautious lifestyle
δ: %

Risk you think you could avoid by being “cautious”
β: %